兰德智库第五章 中国军队之美中系统性战争准备

　　第五章 人民解放军如何为美中系统性战争做准备

　　CHAPTER FIVE

　　我们有理由相信，北京是在万般无奈的情况下扣动扳机——在中国领导人以和平方式解决和美国的棘手分歧失败之后（当前的美中局势确如报告中所言、局势正在恶化与紧张——译者注）。

　　How the People’s Liberation Army Might Prepare for a Systemic U.S.-China War

　　人民解放军如何为美中系统性战争做准备

　　The previous chapters reviewed key trends that could shape the operational environment in which a hypothetical conflict under conditions of Chinese near global primacy might unfold. They also examined historic patterns to help illuminate how U.S.-China rivalry might esca-late to the point of conflict and what general form that conflict could take. We draw from these data for the scenario analysis in this chapter and in Chapters Six and Seven.

　　在本报告前几章，我们假设了中国达到准全球主导地位时可能出现冲突之各种情形，此外还研究了历史上霸权大国与崛起大国之争斗模式，从而阐述美中从竞争到冲突的可能性以及爆发争端的一般模式。因此，在接下来在本章以及第六章和第七章的美中冲突情景分析中还要引用上述篇章中的相关数据。

　　In this chapter we explore potential developments in China’s military and how it might position itself for a major U.S.-China conflict. To be sure, the PLA has long considered war with the United States in its planning and preparations for contingencies related to Taiwan and other disputed territories. However, Chinese experts have generally bound their analysis to hypothetical clashes involving such flash points as Taiwan. As was noted in Chapter One, PLA experts acknowledge the possibility of a great power war with the United States but have not provided any publicly available in depth analysis of systemic, major war. Above all, the judgment by civil authorities that U.S-China war is improbable constrains military leaders from undertaking large-scale preparations for such a war.